05.08.2013: The global PV industry is poised to enter a »third growth phase« in which solar can be deployed without subsidies and can survive a backlash from utilities, according to a new report from Deutsche Bank. The report states that solar is competitive without subsidies in at least 10 major markets globally and has the potential to achieve competitiveness in 10 to 20 additional markets over the next 3 years. And while the solar sector will likely face significant backlash from major utilities that see distributed solar as a big threat to the utility business model, rooftop PV generation will continue to gain significant share of new capacity addition over the next decade. The Deutsche Bank analysts predict that low natural gas prices will make large-scale solar development less attractive in the US in the short term. However, the analysts are still bullish about rapid development of utility-scale solar projects in several other international markets over the next 3 to 5 years, especially China. The analysts are also bullish on distributed solar, particularly as leasing models are becoming more mainstream and various international markets are adopting support policies for rooftop PV. All this is possible because module prices have declined to around 65 cents per W, the analysts say. This price enables large-scale PV systems to be installed for $1.00 to $1.20 per W in most regions worldwide, which translates to solar electricity prices of 10 to 20 cents per kWh. © PHOTON http://www.banking-on-green.com |
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