Friday, October 30, 2015

BBC News: New lithium-air battery design shows promise

I saw this on the BBC News App and thought you should see it:

New lithium-air battery design shows promise
A new design for lithium-air batteries overcomes several hurdles that have stood in the way of this "next-generation" concept.
Disclaimer: The BBC is not responsible for the content of this email, and anything written in this email does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views or opinions. Please note that neither the email address nor name of the sender have been verified.


Sent from a mobile device.

Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Alexander von Welczeck <awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com>
Date: Thursday, October 29, 2015
Subject: Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick
To: Monty Bannerman <mbannerman@arcstarenergy.com>, Roy <roy@cleanpowercapital.net>, Mark Hill <marincountyman01@gmail.com>, thakel@arcstarenergy.com



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Global Investment Banking, Baird <bairdinvestmentbanking@rwbaird.com>
Date: Thu, Oct 29, 2015 at 10:13 PM
Subject: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick
To: awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com


October 30, 2015Baird Equity Research
Energy Technology & Resource Management
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick
 

Reiterate Outperform rating and maintain $69 price target. FSLR beat estimates across the board with strong margin from Desert Stateline, has YTD bookings of 3.1 GW, and is fully allocated through 2016. Additionally, FSLR booked >1 GW of U.S. projects with COD dates in 2017+, displaying continued U.S. demand after the ITC steps down. We continue to believe FSLR's balance sheet, large international pipeline, and leading CdTe technology position the company for significant growth. We remain aggressive buyers at current levels.

  • Q3 beat across the board with strong revenue and margin. FSLR reported record revenue of $1.27B vs. our/consensus estimates of $1.16B/$1.11B, and gross margin of 38% vs. 25.5%/25.5%. Non-GAAP net income was $346M vs. our/consensus estimates of $170M/$167M, while non-GAAP EPS was $3.38 vs. $1.68/$1.64, respectively.
  • 2015 guidance raised exceeding our/consensus estimates. FSLR guided to 2015 sales of $3.5B to $3.6B and EPS of $4.30 to $4.50 vs. our/consensus estimates of $3.52B/$3.56B and $3.38/$3.45, respectively. Bears will point to the onetime earnings gain from the sale of the Desert Stateline, although results were also helped by improving project costs, as well as a decrease in the module collection and recycling obligation.
  • Strong full-year bookings and book-to-bill ratio position the company for solid growth in 2016/2017. FSLR has booked ~3.1 GW YTD, which exceeds its expected FY:15 shipments of 2.9 GW, and the company expects additional bookings prior to year-end and is effectively sold out for 2016. Additionally, expected revenue of ~$7.4B has increased from ~$7.3B as of Dec. 31, 2014, which provides earnings visibility.
  • Efficiency rates continue to increase making FSLR more competitive, and we expect margins to continue to expand as operating leverage continues. FSLR's conversion efficiency averaged 15.8% (current fleet average 16.1%), a 40bps increase q/q, and FSLR's lead line is currently producing at 16.4%. FSLR will focus on increasing module output to meet 2016 demand in the near term and will resume its technology rollout in 2H:16.
  • Large cash balance should facilitate holding projects on balance sheet prior to dropping into CAFD. FSLR has net cash of ~$1.5B and is currently constructing ~1.5 GW on its balance sheet with COD over the next five quarters. We believe FSLR's strong balance sheet provides project flexibility and should allow the company to successfully construct projects to drop into CAFD.

FSLR designs and manufactures thin-film solar modules and also operates a downstream project development business.

Full Report
  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
ESTIMATE CHANGE
1-Year Price Chart
Price History for FSLR
Stock Data
Rating: Outperform
Suitability: Higher Risk
Price Target: $69
Price (10/29/15): $50.99
Market Cap (mil): $5,181
Shares Out (mil): 101.6
Average Daily Vol (mil): 2.05
Dividend Yield: 0.0%
Estimates
FY Dec2015E2016E2017E
Q1(0.62) A
Q20.93 A
Q33.38 A
Q40.69 E
Fiscal EPS4.40 E 3.51 E 3.32 E
Previous Est 3.38 E
Fiscal P/E11.6x14.5x15.4x
Chart/Table Sources: Factset and Baird Data
[ Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification ]
  Click for full report  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
Tyler Frank
tfrank@rwbaird.com
415.364.3342


Property of Baird. Please contact Baird for permission to share.

Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
Covered Companies Mentioned
All stock prices below are the October 29, 2015 closing price.
8Point3 Energy Partners, LP (CAFD - $13.18 - Outperform)
SunPower Corporation (SPWR - $27.36 - Outperform)
(See recent research reports for more information)




8 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP.

1 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of FSLR, CAFD and SPWR.

2 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP in the past 12 months.
3 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates have received investment banking compensation from 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP in the past 12 months.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking related compensation from the company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated may not be licensed to execute transactions in all foreign listed securities directly. Transactions in foreign listed securities may be prohibited for residents of the United States. Please contact a Baird representative for more information.

Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.

Risk Ratings: L - Lower Risk - Higher-quality companies for investors seeking capital appreciation or income with an emphasis on safety. Company characteristics may include: stable earnings, conservative balance sheets, and an established history of revenue and earnings. A - Average Risk - Growth situations for investors seeking capital appreciation with an emphasis on safety. Company characteristics may include: moderate volatility, modest balance-sheet leverage, and stable patterns of revenue and earnings. H - Higher Risk - Higher-growth situations appropriate for investors seeking capital appreciation with the acceptance of risk. Company characteristics may include: higher balance-sheet leverage, dynamic business environments, and higher levels of earnings and price volatility. S - Speculative Risk - High-growth situations appropriate only for investors willing to accept a high degree of volatility and risk. Company characteristics may include: unpredictable earnings, small capitalization, aggressive growth strategies, rapidly changing market dynamics, high leverage, extreme price volatility and unknown competitive challenges.

Valuation, Ratings and Risks. The recommendation and price target contained within this report are based on a time horizon of 12 months but there is no guarantee the objective will be achieved within the specified time horizon. Price targets are determined by a subjective review of fundamental and/or quantitative factors of the issuer, its industry, and the security type. A variety of methods may be used to determine the value of a security including, but not limited to, discounted cash flow, earnings multiples, peer group comparisons, and sum of the parts. Overall market risk, interest rate risk, and general economic risks impact all securities. Specific information regarding the price target and recommendation is provided in the text of our most recent research report.

Distribution of Investment Ratings. As of September 30, 2015, Baird U.S. Equity Research covered 737 companies, with 51% rated Outperform/Buy, 48% rated Neutral/Hold and 1% rated Underperform/Sell. Within these rating categories, 13% of Outperform/Buy-rated, 6% of Neutral/Hold-rated and 1% rated Underperform/Sell companies have compensated Baird for investment banking services in the past 12 months and/or Baird managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for these companies in the past 12 months.

Analyst Compensation. Analyst compensation is based on: 1) the correlation between the analyst's recommendations and stock price performance; 2) ratings and direct feedback from our investing clients, our institutional and retail sales force (as applicable) and from independent rating services; 3) the analyst's productivity, including the quality of the analyst's research and the analyst's contribution to the growth and development of our overall research effort and 4) compliance with all of Robert W. Baird's internal policies and procedures. This compensation criteria and actual compensation is reviewed and approved on an annual basis by Baird's Research Oversight Committee.

Analyst compensation is derived from all revenue sources of the firm, including revenues from investment banking. Baird does not compensate research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.

A complete listing of all companies covered by Baird U.S. Equity Research and applicable research disclosures can be accessed at

http://www.rwbaird.com/research-insights/research/coverage/research-disclosure.aspx.

You can also call 1-800-792-2473 or write: Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Equity Research, 777 E. Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53202.

Analyst Certification. The senior research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this research report and/or financial model accurately reflect such senior analyst's personal views about the subject securities or issuers and that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report.

Disclaimers

Baird prohibits analysts from owning stock in companies they cover.

This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are unmanaged common stock indices used to measure and report performance of various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not available.

Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and those laws and regulations may differ from Australian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers and not Australian laws.

Copyright 2015 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated

Other Disclosures

The information and rating included in this report represent the Analyst's long-term (12 month) view as described above. The research analyst(s) named in this report may at times, discuss, at the request of our clients, including Robert W. Baird & Co. salespersons and traders, or may have discussed in this report, certain trading strategies based on catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report. These trading strategies may differ from the analysts' published price target or rating for such securities. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental long-term (12 month) rating for such securities, as described above. In addition, Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates (Baird) may provide to certain clients additional or research supplemental products or services, such as outlooks, commentaries and other detailed analyses, which focus on covered stocks, companies, industries or sectors. Not all clients who receive our standard company-specific research reports are eligible to receive these additional or supplemental products or services. Baird determines in its sole discretion the clients who will receive additional or supplemental products or services, in light of various factors including the size and scope of the client relationships. These additional or supplemental products or services may feature different analytical or research techniques and information than are contained in Baird's standard research reports. Any ratings and recommendations contained in such additional or research supplemental products are consistent with the Analyst's long-term ratings and recommendations contained in more broadly disseminated standard research reports.

United Kingdom ("UK") disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK and other countries for which Robert W. Baird Limited ("RWBL") holds a MiFID passport.

This material is distributed in the UK and the European Economic Area ("EEA") by RWBL, which has an office at Finsbury Circus House, 15 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA").

For the purposes of the FCA requirements, this investment research report is classified as investment research and is objective.

This material is only directed at and is only made available to persons in the EEA who would satisfy the criteria of being "Professional" investors under MiFID and to persons in the UK falling within articles 19, 38, 47, and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). Accordingly, this document is intended only for persons regarded as investment professionals (or equivalent) and is not to be distributed to or passed onto any other person (such as persons who would be classified as Retail clients under MiFID).

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and RWBL have in place organizational and administrative arrangements for the disclosure and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to research recommendations.

This material is not intended for persons in jurisdictions where the distribution or publication of this research report is not permitted under the applicable laws or regulations of such jurisdiction.

Investment involves risk. The price of securities may fluctuate and past performance is not indicative of future results. Any recommendation contained in the research report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any individuals. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the research report. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.

RWBL is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the FCA under UK laws, which may differ from Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FCA requirements and not Australian laws.

Dividend Yield. As used in this report, the term "dividend yield" refers, on a percentage basis, to the historical distributions made by the issuer relative to its current market price. Such distributions are not guaranteed, may be modified at the issuer's discretion, may exceed operating cash flow, subsidized by borrowed funds or include a return of investment principal.



Click here for PDF versionAsk the analyst a questionClick here to unsubscribe




--
Monty Bannerman
ArcStar Energy
+1 646.402.5076
www.arcstarenergy.com

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Prospects for Renewable Energy in Mexico: International Renewable Energy Agency, May 2015

Mexico has a large and diverse renewable energy resource base. Given the right mix of policies, Mexico

has the potential to attract large-scale investment in renewables that can help diversify its energy

supply. Increased renewable energy use would also set Mexico on a pathway toward significantly

reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, development has been limited to date.

 

Under current plans, the share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption (TFEC) is

forecast to increase from 4.4% in 2010 (base year of this analysis) to 10% in 2030.

According to REmap 2030, Mexico has the potential to increase this share to 21% by 2030. This implies

a threefold growth in total renewable energy use in absolute terms from 0.5 exajoules (EJ) to 1.5 EJ in 2010-30.

 

By 2030, Mexico could generate up to 46% of its electricity each year, or 280 terawatt-hours (TWh),

from renewable sources. This compares with 18% using business-as-usual developments (116 TWh/

year). To achieve a 46% share of renewables in electricity generation, the country is likely to see the

greatest deployment in wind (30 gigawatts (GW)) and solar photovoltaic (PV) (30 GW). Together

these could account for 26% of total power generation in 2030. Small and large hydropower (26 GW)

could contribute 12% of total power generation, with geothermal energy supplying 5% (4.5 GW) and

biomass 2.5% (4 GW).

 

If renewables uptake were accelerated, all traditional uses of biomass for cooking or heating in the

buildings sector would be replaced by modern forms of renewable energy. Total biomass consumption

in all end-use sectors for heating or as transport fuels could reach 685 petajoules (PJ) by 2030. This

represents more than one third of total renewable energy use. Total installed capacity of solar thermal

applications for heating/cooling in buildings and industry would amount to 33 GW, making up almost

one tenth of the country's renewable energy consumption.

 

Renewables can be an important driver for diversifying Mexico's energy supply. Renewable energy has

the potential to reduce Mexico's total coal demand by 62%, natural gas by 21% and oil by 6% compared

to business as usual to 2030. As a result, total natural gas demand would grow by 115% in 2010-2030

compared to 175% under business as usual.

 

Accelerating Mexico's uptake of renewable energy could result in savings of 7.2 US dollars (USD) per

megawatt-hour (MWh) compared to the equivalent new capacity with conventional generation. This

saving would equate to 9% of the production cost of natural gas-fired power generation in 2030.

 

The result of this higher renewable energy uptake is an annual net savings of USD 1.6 billion in Mexico's

total energy system cost by 2030. Meanwhile, if the benefits resulting from lower harm to health

and reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are taken into account, savings could amount to USD

4.6 billion and 11.6 billion respectively each year.

 

Source: International Renewable Energy Agency: Renewable Energy Prospects – Mexico, May 2015

 

Monty Bannerman

ArcStar Energy

+1-646-402-5076

www.arcstarenergy.com

 

Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Q3:15 Preview



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Alexander von Welczeck <awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com>
Date: Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Subject: Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Q3:15 Preview
To: Monty Bannerman <mbannerman@arcstarenergy.com>, Roy <roy@cleanpowercapital.net>, Mark Hill <mark@cleanpowercapital.net>


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Global Investment Banking, Baird" <bairdinvestmentbanking@rwbaird.com>
Date: Oct 26, 2015 10:00 PM
Subject: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Q3:15 Preview
To: <awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com>
Cc:

October 27, 2015Baird Equity Research
Energy Technology & Resource Management
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Q3:15 Preview
 
Reiterate Outperform rating and $69 price target. Our estimates are largely in line with consensus and we believe FSLR will have strong results supported the sale of the Desert Stateline. We continue to believe FSLR is well positioned as the company is sold out of 2016 capacity, continues to make efficiency gains, and remains the cost leader with a solid balance sheet. We recommend owning shares into Q3 results.
  • Our Q3 estimates are largely in line with consensus. We estimate revenue of $1,160M vs. consensus estimates of $1,111M and gross margin of 25.5% vs. 25.5%. We expect net income of $170M vs. $167M and non-GAAP EPS of $1.68 vs. $1.64.
  • Results should be supported by the sale of Desert Stateline facility to Southern Power. During Q3, FSLR sold a controlling interest in its Desert Stateline power plant in CA to Southern Power, a subsidiary of Southern Company (SO; Not Covered). The remaining minority interest will likely be sold to CAFD. The 300 MW project is expected to be fully operational in Q3:16 and the power will be sold to Edison International (EIX; Not Rated) in a 20-year PPA. The deal is FSLR's fourth with SO, including North Star and Lost Hills last quarter, and we view the ongoing relationship as a positive for FSLR.
  • We expect an update on manufacturing volumes, efficiency rates, and thoughts on 2016. Although FSLR continues to work on increasing efficiency rates (lead line was 16.2% during Q2 and FSLR will continue to update its remaining lines), the company is focused on increasing utilization rates and production volumes to meet its 2016 demand. We will look for additional details about plans to expand manufacturing and increase production volumes in 2016.
  • We continue to believe numbers are likely too low for 2016 but do not expect guidance until Q4 results or FSLR's analyst day in early 2016. We estimate 2016 EPS of $3.51 vs. consensus of $4.07, and although consensus estimates have recently been increased, we believe there FSLR could exceed our/consensus estimates given increasing demand and declining costs.
  • The Q3 earnings call will be held on October 29 at 3:30 p.m. CT and can be accessed at http://investor.firstsolar.com/events.cfm.

FSLR designs and manufactures thin-film solar modules and also operates a downstream project development business.

Full Report
  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
RESEARCH UPDATE
1-Year Price Chart
Price History for FSLR
Stock Data
Rating: Outperform
Suitability: Higher Risk
Price Target: $69
Price (10/26/15): $50.57
Market Cap (mil): $5,138
Shares Out (mil): 101.6
Average Daily Vol (mil): 2.04
Dividend Yield: 0.0%
Estimates
FY Dec2015E2016E2017E
Q1(0.62) A
Q20.93 A
Q31.68 E
Q41.39 E
Fiscal EPS3.38 E 3.51 E 3.32 E
Fiscal P/E15.0x14.4x15.2x
Chart/Table Sources: Factset and Baird Data
[ Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification ]
  Click for full report  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
Tyler Frank
tfrank@rwbaird.com
415.364.3342


Property of Baird. Please contact Baird for permission to share.

Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
Covered Companies Mentioned
All stock prices below are the October 26, 2015 closing price.
8Point3 Energy Partners, LP (CAFD - $13.38 - Outperform)
SunPower Corporation (SPWR - $24.73 - Outperform)
(See recent research reports for more information)




8 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP.

1 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of FSLR, CAFD, EIX, SO and SPWR.

2 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP in the past 12 months.
3 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates have received investment banking compensation from 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP and Southern Company in the past 12 months.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking related compensation from the company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated may not be licensed to execute transactions in all foreign listed securities directly. Transactions in foreign listed securities may be prohibited for residents of the United States. Please contact a Baird representative for more information.

Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.

Risk Ratings: L - Lower Risk - Higher-quality companies for investors seeking capital appreciation or income with an emphasis on safety. Company characteristics may include: stable earnings, conservative balance sheets, and an established history of revenue and earnings. A - Average Risk - Growth situations for investors seeking capital appreciation with an emphasis on safety. Company characteristics may include: moderate volatility, modest balance-sheet leverage, and stable patterns of revenue and earnings. H - Higher Risk - Higher-growth situations appropriate for investors seeking capital appreciation with the acceptance of risk. Company characteristics may include: higher balance-sheet leverage, dynamic business environments, and higher levels of earnings and price volatility. S - Speculative Risk - High-growth situations appropriate only for investors willing to accept a high degree of volatility and risk. Company characteristics may include: unpredictable earnings, small capitalization, aggressive growth strategies, rapidly changing market dynamics, high leverage, extreme price volatility and unknown competitive challenges.

Valuation, Ratings and Risks. The recommendation and price target contained within this report are based on a time horizon of 12 months but there is no guarantee the objective will be achieved within the specified time horizon. Price targets are determined by a subjective review of fundamental and/or quantitative factors of the issuer, its industry, and the security type. A variety of methods may be used to determine the value of a security including, but not limited to, discounted cash flow, earnings multiples, peer group comparisons, and sum of the parts. Overall market risk, interest rate risk, and general economic risks impact all securities. Specific information regarding the price target and recommendation is provided in the text of our most recent research report.

Distribution of Investment Ratings. As of September 30, 2015, Baird U.S. Equity Research covered 737 companies, with 51% rated Outperform/Buy, 48% rated Neutral/Hold and 1% rated Underperform/Sell. Within these rating categories, 13% of Outperform/Buy-rated, 6% of Neutral/Hold-rated and 1% rated Underperform/Sell companies have compensated Baird for investment banking services in the past 12 months and/or Baird managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for these companies in the past 12 months.

Analyst Compensation. Analyst compensation is based on: 1) the correlation between the analyst's recommendations and stock price performance; 2) ratings and direct feedback from our investing clients, our institutional and retail sales force (as applicable) and from independent rating services; 3) the analyst's productivity, including the quality of the analyst's research and the analyst's contribution to the growth and development of our overall research effort and 4) compliance with all of Robert W. Baird's internal policies and procedures. This compensation criteria and actual compensation is reviewed and approved on an annual basis by Baird's Research Oversight Committee.

Analyst compensation is derived from all revenue sources of the firm, including revenues from investment banking. Baird does not compensate research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.

A complete listing of all companies covered by Baird U.S. Equity Research and applicable research disclosures can be accessed at

http://www.rwbaird.com/research-insights/research/coverage/research-disclosure.aspx.

You can also call 1-800-792-2473 or write: Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Equity Research, 777 E. Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53202.

Analyst Certification. The senior research analyst(s) certifies that the views expressed in this research report and/or financial model accurately reflect such senior analyst's personal views about the subject securities or issuers and that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report.

Disclaimers

Baird prohibits analysts from owning stock in companies they cover.

This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are unmanaged common stock indices used to measure and report performance of various sectors of the stock market; direct investment in indices is not available.

Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and those laws and regulations may differ from Australian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers and not Australian laws.

Copyright 2015 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated

Other Disclosures

The information and rating included in this report represent the Analyst's long-term (12 month) view as described above. The research analyst(s) named in this report may at times, discuss, at the request of our clients, including Robert W. Baird & Co. salespersons and traders, or may have discussed in this report, certain trading strategies based on catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report. These trading strategies may differ from the analysts' published price target or rating for such securities. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental long-term (12 month) rating for such securities, as described above. In addition, Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates (Baird) may provide to certain clients additional or research supplemental products or services, such as outlooks, commentaries and other detailed analyses, which focus on covered stocks, companies, industries or sectors. Not all clients who receive our standard company-specific research reports are eligible to receive these additional or supplemental products or services. Baird determines in its sole discretion the clients who will receive additional or supplemental products or services, in light of various factors including the size and scope of the client relationships. These additional or supplemental products or services may feature different analytical or research techniques and information than are contained in Baird's standard research reports. Any ratings and recommendations contained in such additional or research supplemental products are consistent with the Analyst's long-term ratings and recommendations contained in more broadly disseminated standard research reports.

United Kingdom ("UK") disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK and other countries for which Robert W. Baird Limited ("RWBL") holds a MiFID passport.

This material is distributed in the UK and the European Economic Area ("EEA") by RWBL, which has an office at Finsbury Circus House, 15 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA").

For the purposes of the FCA requirements, this investment research report is classified as investment research and is objective.

This material is only directed at and is only made available to persons in the EEA who would satisfy the criteria of being "Professional" investors under MiFID and to persons in the UK falling within articles 19, 38, 47, and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). Accordingly, this document is intended only for persons regarded as investment professionals (or equivalent) and is not to be distributed to or passed onto any other person (such as persons who would be classified as Retail clients under MiFID).

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and RWBL have in place organizational and administrative arrangements for the disclosure and avoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to research recommendations.

This material is not intended for persons in jurisdictions where the distribution or publication of this research report is not permitted under the applicable laws or regulations of such jurisdiction.

Investment involves risk. The price of securities may fluctuate and past performance is not indicative of future results. Any recommendation contained in the research report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any individuals. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the research report. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.

RWBL is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the FCA under UK laws, which may differ from Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FCA requirements and not Australian laws.

Dividend Yield. As used in this report, the term "dividend yield" refers, on a percentage basis, to the historical distributions made by the issuer relative to its current market price. Such distributions are not guaranteed, may be modified at the issuer's discretion, may exceed operating cash flow, subsidized by borrowed funds or include a return of investment principal.



Click here for PDF versionAsk the analyst a questionClick here to unsubscribe



--
Monty Bannerman
ArcStar Energy
+1 646.402.5076
www.arcstarenergy.com

Monday, October 26, 2015

Bloomberg: House Votes to Move Ahead With Bid to Revive U.S. Ex-Im Bank

From Bloomberg, Oct 26, 2015, 7:30:32 PM

The House voted to move forward with a bill to reauthorize the U.S. Export-Import Bank in a bipartisan effort to bypass conservatives who have blocked the bank from financing companies' overseas sales for almost four months.

To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1S77QSc

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Thursday, October 22, 2015

Bloomberg: Oil's Big Slump Looks Like the 1980s 'Lost Decade'

From Bloomberg, Oct 22, 2015, 10:28:00 AM
Oil storage tanks sit at the Esso oil refinery, operated by Exxon Mobil Corp. in Fawley, U.K., on Friday, Oct. 2, 2015. A 50 percent drop in crude prices in the past year has hit earnings for oil and gas producers, forcing them to slash capital spending and scale back unprofitable operations.

Crude oil's collapse is bringing back memories of the decade of low prices that started in 1985 when Saudi Arabia began targeting market share.

To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1RqurYV

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Florida's largest private solar array now operational: pv-magazine

Solar and wind will match gas on cost by 2020, finds UK government body: pv-magazine

Bloomberg: Brazil's Real Drops After Central Bank Delays Inflation Target

From Bloomberg, Oct 22, 2015, 7:48:11 AM

Brazil's real declined for a third day after the central bank said it aims to bring inflation to target "over the monetary-policy horizon," backing down from a commitment to meet its inflation goal in 2016.

To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Rqd2Q3

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Wednesday, October 21, 2015

BBC News: Permafrost warming in parts of Alaska is 'unbelievable'

I saw this on the BBC News App and thought you should see it:

Permafrost warming in parts of Alaska is 'unbelievable'
A leading expert tells the BBC that rapid rates of warming will see permafrost in parts of Alaska start to thaw by 2070.
Disclaimer: The BBC is not responsible for the content of this email, and anything written in this email does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views or opinions. Please note that neither the email address nor name of the sender have been verified.


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Tuesday, October 20, 2015

BBC News: Canada to withdraw fighter jets from Syria and Iraq strikes

See statements relating to our biz.

Canada to withdraw fighter jets from Syria and Iraq strikes
Canada's PM-designate Justin Trudeau tells the US president he will be withdrawing Canadian fighter jets from the air strikes against Islamic State.
Disclaimer: The BBC is not responsible for the content of this email, and anything written in this email does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views or opinions. Please note that neither the email address nor name of the sender have been verified.


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BBC News: Xi Jinping to sign Hinkley Point nuclear power deal in UK

See PPA, backed buy sovereign loan guarantees on the debt and who knows what other goodies and jimcracks.

Xi Jinping to sign Hinkley Point nuclear power deal in UK
China's president is expected to put the seal later on its contribution to what will be the first UK nuclear power plant to be built in a generation.
Disclaimer: The BBC is not responsible for the content of this email, and anything written in this email does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views or opinions. Please note that neither the email address nor name of the sender have been verified.


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BBC News: Xi Jinping to sign Hinkley Point nuclear power deal in UK

See PPA, backed buy sovereign loan guarantees on the debt and who knows what other goodies and jimcracks.

Xi Jinping to sign Hinkley Point nuclear power deal in UK
China's president is expected to put the seal later on its contribution to what will be the first UK nuclear power plant to be built in a generation.
Disclaimer: The BBC is not responsible for the content of this email, and anything written in this email does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views or opinions. Please note that neither the email address nor name of the sender have been verified.


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Upcoming Nuke Plant Closure Could Roil New England Markets

No carbon, but still can’t get past the elephant in the room that they are too expensive to build and too expensive to refurb or clean up their waste.

http://www.pddnet.com/news/2015/10/upcoming-nuke-plant-closure-could-roil-new-england-markets?et_cid=4891158&et_rid=45614407&location=top

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Bloomberg: Oil Bulls Maintain Momentum as Rig Cutbacks Seen Reducing Glut

Oil supply coming in line with demand.

From Bloomberg, Oct 18, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

Hedge funds increased bullish oil wagers on speculation that falling investment will diminish the global supply glut.

To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1VZAXHy

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Fwd: (BN) Banks’ Record Treasuries Stockpile Boosts Case for Fed to Hold

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "MICHAEL A SALLETTE" <m.sallette@icloud.com>
Date: Oct 18, 2015 4:58 PM
Subject: (BN) Banks' Record Treasuries Stockpile Boosts Case for Fed to Hold
To: "Monty Bannerman" <mbannerman@arcstarenergy.com>
Cc:

Banks' Record Treasuries Stockpile Boosts Case for Fed to Hold

By Wes Goodman

  • Buying helped push U.S. 10-year yields below 2% this week
  • Probability Fed will raise rates by December meeting is 30%
(Bloomberg) --

U.S. banks are gorging on Treasuries in the latest sign investors expect the Federal Reserve to postpone raising interest rates.

Commercial lenders boosted their holdings to a record $2.15 trillion at the end of last month, based on Fed data. The stake is almost double the amount owned by China, the biggest U.S. foreign creditor. Treasuries have been advancing since the middle of June, with 10-year yields dipping below 2 percent this week, on speculation the absence of inflation means policy makers will defer raising rates.

"As to why they're holding all these Treasuries, the view of the Fed has changed," said Ali Jalai, who trades bonds in Singapore at Bank of Nova Scotia, one of the 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. "Maybe they're not going to raise rates this year."

Benchmark 10-year note yields were little changed at 2.01 percent as of 7 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2 percent security due in August 2025 was 99 29/32. The yield may fall to 1.75 percent by year-end, Jalai said.

Treasuries returned 2.1 percent this year through Thursday, after gaining 6.2 percent in 2014, based on Bloomberg World Bond Indexes.

Fed Forecasts

Investors have been reducing forecasts for a Fed rate increase since August as inflation stagnates in the world's biggest economy. U.S. consumer prices fell in September by the most since January, a government report showed Thursday.

Economists predict data Friday will show industrial production fell last month and a gauge of job openings slipped from a record high in August, based on Bloomberg surveys. The Treasury is scheduled on Friday to release figures on overseas holdings of U.S debt and other assets for August.

Now is the time to seek higher returns outside the Treasury market, said Will Tseng, a bond portfolio manager for Mirae Asset Global Investments.

"The Fed won't hike for the next few months, but we're still in a recovery path" in the U.S., said Tseng, who's based in Taipei. "That's the best position for high-yield and equity assets." Mirae, which has $75 billion in assets, has been adding dollar-denominated high-yield bonds and emerging-market local-currency debt in October, he said.

The probability the Fed will increase rates by its December policy meeting has dropped to 30 percent from 70 percent odds at the start of August, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The calculations are based on the assumption the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Wes Goodman in Singapore at +65-6212-1568 or
wgoodman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Garfield Reynolds at +61-2-9777-8695 or
greynolds1@bloomberg.net
Nicholas Reynolds, Jonathan Annells



Click here to view story in Bloomberg



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Thursday, October 15, 2015

Bloomberg: U.S. Budget Gap Hits Eight-Year Low as Tax Receipts Reach Record

From Bloomberg, Oct 15, 2015, 3:30:00 PM

The U.S. budget deficit shrank to the smallest since 2007 as stronger individual and corporate tax revenue boosted receipts to a record.

To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1LQInxi

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October IEA Report: Renewables to lead world power market growth to 2020

Fwd: Envision completes wind power acquisition in Mexico

China money moving in ahead of the auctions. Further sign of market shift in motion.


Monty Bannerman
ArcStar Energy
+1 646.402.5076
www.arcstarenergy.com

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Rebecca Van Nichols <rvan@tnag.net>
Date: Thu, Oct 15, 2015 at 8:07 AM
Subject: Envision completes wind power acquisition in Mexico
To: mbannerman@arcstarenergy.com



Envision completes wind power acquisition in Mexico

October 14, 2015
Envision Energy

Envision completes wind power acquisition in Mexico

Envision Energy, the world's leading smart energy solution provider, has completed the acquisition of a controlling stake in a portfolio of more than 600 MW developed by ViveEnergia (www.viveenergia.com), one of Mexico's leading firms in the renewable energy sector, with the aim to commissioning its first wind farm by the end of 2016.

"Mexico is one of the most promising markets in the Americas for wind power generation in the coming decade, not only a result of the energy reform but also given its untapped wind resources, viable projects and off-takers, as well as the interest of equity sponsors and lenders ," said Felix Zhang , Envision's Executive Director.

"This investment is considered China's largest direct investment in Mexico in the renewable energy space and will take advantage of bilateral cooperation agreements and lines of credit that are in place ," said Rafael Valdez Mingramm , Envision's Director for Latin America & the Caribbean , during the 9th China Latin America Business Summit that took place in Guadalajara, Mexico and ended today.

Under the terms of the strategic alliance entered with ViveEnergia, the consortium will bring current portfolio into a 'ready to build' stage by the end of this year and initiate construction of the first wind farm early next year. A goal of 1.5GW of projects developed and in operation has been set by 2020.

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