Glee in Russia Over Trump's Foreign Policy Largess

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For Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, President Trump is the foreign policy gift that keeps on giving.CreditAlexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press

By Neil MacFarquhar

Dec. 21, 2018

MOSCOW — A note of glee crept into Russian commentary and news coverage on Friday about the current turmoil in Washington around national security, with President Vladimir V. Putin seemingly checking off one item after another that he might have written on his wish list for Santa.

First, President Trump blindsided his aides and the rest of the world by deciding to pull the full contingent of some 2,000 American troops out of Syria, helping the Kremlin to confirm Mr. Putin's gamble that intervening in Syria would revive Russian influence in the Middle East.

Mr. Trump followed that up by declaring that the United States would pull half its forces out of Afghanistan; the combined withdrawals prompted the resignation of Jim Mattis, the respected general who leads the Pentagon.

All that followed Mr. Trump's already substantial effort to undermine NATO and the European Union by weakening the American commitment to its traditional alliances.

"Trump is God's gift that keeps on giving," said Vladimir Frolov, a Russian columnist and foreign affairs analyst. "Trump implements Russia's negative agenda by default, undermining the U.S.–led world order, U.S. alliances, U.S. credibility as a partner and an ally. All of this on his own. Russia can just relax and watch and root for Trump, which Putin does at every TV appearance."

One headline in a regional Russian newspaper trumpeted, "Trump Leaves the Dog Out in the Cold," referring to Mr. Mattis's nickname, Mad Dog, from his days in the Marines. Konstantin Kosachev, the head of the international affairs committee in the upper house of Russia's Parliament, wrote on Facebook that the differences in Washington were "an interesting signal, and moreover, rather a positive one."

There was also positive news for Russia on the economic front, with Washington announcing that it intended to lift sanctions on Rusal, the Russian company that dominates a large share of the world aluminum market. The firm is headed by Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch who is not only close to Mr. Putin, but also a one-time business partner of Mr. Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

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United States Army vehicles in Hajin, eastern Syria, last week. President Trump blindsided his aides and the rest of the world by deciding to pull the full contingent of American troops out of Syria.CreditDelil Souleiman/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

If the perception in some quarters in the United States and on Twitter is that the Kremlin was blackmailing Mr. Trump into doing its bidding, that theory did not gain immediate traction in Russia. Instead, analysts and news articles more likely to suggest that Mr. Trump was fulfilling his campaign pledges.

"I am not of the idea that he is being blackmailed," said Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York, currently in Moscow. "Undermining NATO and undermining Europe is something that Putin would like to do, but Trump is doing it for different reasons."

Still, even if convinced that Mr. Trump is not being blackmailed, analysts are still puzzled over why his actions so closely coincided with Russia's foreign policy goals.

"Once again we see a president who appears to be acting impulsively and erratically — except when it comes to Russia," said Leslie Vinajmuri, professor of international relations at SOAS University of London. "Here, Trump has been eerily consistent in his willingness to adopt policies that enable Russia's strategy while undermining ours."

Nevertheless, not everything is flowing in Moscow's favor.

"Trump's announcement that they are leaving Syria is a gift, of course," said Valery D. Solovei, a political-science professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. The Kremlin may use its success in Syria to forge on into Libya for similar reasons, he said.

Afghanistan was more complicated, however.

"On the one hand, the Russians are gleeful about the American withdrawal; there is this 'We told you so' feeling," he said, referring to the Soviet Union's disastrous invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. But "the Kremlin has always feared that destabilization in Afghanistan could increase the flow of drugs and extremists to Russia."

In Syria, the American presence had proved to be a convenient excuse for Mr. Putin about why the Russian intervention was not bringing the conflict to as rapid a close as he had promised. In addition, fighting the remnants of the Islamic State will now become Russia's problem, with any upsurge in violence likely to undermine the Kremlin position that Syria is stable enough for a postwar political process and reconstruction funds.

On the sanctions front, although the United States lifted penalties on Rusal, that came at the cost of diminishing Mr. Deripaska's role with the company. And Mr. Deripaska himself remains under sanctions for his business practices.

In addition, the Russian argument all along has been that sanctions had nothing to do with its actions, like invading Georgia and Ukraine and annexing Crimea, but were a way for the West to keep Russia down. So negotiating to escape them undermined that argument.

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The foundry of the Rusal aluminum smelter in Krasnoyarsk, Russia. Washington announced it intended to lift sanctions on the company.CreditIlya Naymushin/Reuters

The Russian government also continued to harbor reservations that what Mr. Trump says and what he does are not always the same thing — and are subject to reversal at the drop of a tweet. So senior Russian officials reacted cautiously to the withdrawal announcements, starting with Syria.

"We need to figure out how, when, to where and in which manner the Americans are leaving," Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin's spokesman, told reporters on Friday. "At this point, this is not clear."

Mr. Putin, at a news conference on Thursday, again praised Mr. Trump, suggesting that the change to a Democratic majority in the House would further undermine the American president's attempts to improve relations with Russia.

Despite such praise, however, the Trump administration has taken positions — on issues like withdrawing from arms-control treaties and especially on Ukraine — that the Kremlin dislikes. Washington has not acquiesced to Russia's efforts to exert control over Ukraine, with Moscow's attempts to maintain influence throughout the former Soviet Union one of its main foreign policy goals.

Moscow conveniently accuses Washington of being the source of its tensions with Kiev, including the naval clash in the Kerch Strait late last month and the moves by the Orthodox Church in Ukraine to establish its independence from Moscow.

Over all, there is also concern that Mr. Trump is a little too erratic. For now, his decisions are tilting in Mr. Putin's favor, but there is also concern that they also could move in the other direction with equal speed.

"Too unstable a world is something that Putin does not really want," said Ms. Khrushcheva, pointing out that Russia did not have the same financial or other resources as the United States to address problems all over the globe. "If there is way too much chaos, Russia would have to act in too many directions."

For the moment, however, Moscow is on board for some instability. Mr. Trump's curbs on the United States' international role and focus on domestic matters give room for countries like China and Russia to expand their influence, analysts said.

"We can tolerate some degree of unpredictability and mercurial policies on the tactical level — it's worth it," Mr. Frolov, the Russian foreign affairs analyst, wrote in response to written questions. "In Trump we trust … to do the right thing."

Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting from Moscow, and Steven Erlanger from Brussels.