The predictions referenced in this article are from NREL, so should be considered solid as far as market data and forecasts go. If you read between the lines and in the context of what we are doing with fuel cells, you will likely conclude that even when paired with a zero fuel/low-cost source of energy to charge them, and focus only on discharging them for maximum demand/rate arbitrage, batteries are still very much in early adoption phase, heading to a successful business and investment model, but they are no there today. The Cost/Benefit numbers show that IRRs actually degrade very substantially when batteries are added to a solar investment. For this and a number of other reasons in addition to their basic economics (reliability, manageability, bankability etc), if NY utilities are looking for immediate and proven demand relief solutions that they can implement at will, conform to NWA/REV/REC programs will still be viably operating over long contract periods, only FC’s and solar fit those criteria today. Let’s all hope their award decision is based on objective facts and not the sizzle and future potential of energy storage.
We will likely want to increasingly bring storage into market opportunity assessments, but for now, only if a battery developer/operator is capable of mitigating the risks and being financeable.
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