Friday, October 30, 2015

Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Alexander von Welczeck <awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com>
Date: Thursday, October 29, 2015
Subject: Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick
To: Monty Bannerman <mbannerman@arcstarenergy.com>, Roy <roy@cleanpowercapital.net>, Mark Hill <marincountyman01@gmail.com>, thakel@arcstarenergy.com



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Global Investment Banking, Baird <bairdinvestmentbanking@rwbaird.com>
Date: Thu, Oct 29, 2015 at 10:13 PM
Subject: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick
To: awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com


October 30, 2015Baird Equity Research
Energy Technology & Resource Management
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Strong Beat and Raise for Our Top Solar Pick
 

Reiterate Outperform rating and maintain $69 price target. FSLR beat estimates across the board with strong margin from Desert Stateline, has YTD bookings of 3.1 GW, and is fully allocated through 2016. Additionally, FSLR booked >1 GW of U.S. projects with COD dates in 2017+, displaying continued U.S. demand after the ITC steps down. We continue to believe FSLR's balance sheet, large international pipeline, and leading CdTe technology position the company for significant growth. We remain aggressive buyers at current levels.

  • Q3 beat across the board with strong revenue and margin. FSLR reported record revenue of $1.27B vs. our/consensus estimates of $1.16B/$1.11B, and gross margin of 38% vs. 25.5%/25.5%. Non-GAAP net income was $346M vs. our/consensus estimates of $170M/$167M, while non-GAAP EPS was $3.38 vs. $1.68/$1.64, respectively.
  • 2015 guidance raised exceeding our/consensus estimates. FSLR guided to 2015 sales of $3.5B to $3.6B and EPS of $4.30 to $4.50 vs. our/consensus estimates of $3.52B/$3.56B and $3.38/$3.45, respectively. Bears will point to the onetime earnings gain from the sale of the Desert Stateline, although results were also helped by improving project costs, as well as a decrease in the module collection and recycling obligation.
  • Strong full-year bookings and book-to-bill ratio position the company for solid growth in 2016/2017. FSLR has booked ~3.1 GW YTD, which exceeds its expected FY:15 shipments of 2.9 GW, and the company expects additional bookings prior to year-end and is effectively sold out for 2016. Additionally, expected revenue of ~$7.4B has increased from ~$7.3B as of Dec. 31, 2014, which provides earnings visibility.
  • Efficiency rates continue to increase making FSLR more competitive, and we expect margins to continue to expand as operating leverage continues. FSLR's conversion efficiency averaged 15.8% (current fleet average 16.1%), a 40bps increase q/q, and FSLR's lead line is currently producing at 16.4%. FSLR will focus on increasing module output to meet 2016 demand in the near term and will resume its technology rollout in 2H:16.
  • Large cash balance should facilitate holding projects on balance sheet prior to dropping into CAFD. FSLR has net cash of ~$1.5B and is currently constructing ~1.5 GW on its balance sheet with COD over the next five quarters. We believe FSLR's strong balance sheet provides project flexibility and should allow the company to successfully construct projects to drop into CAFD.

FSLR designs and manufactures thin-film solar modules and also operates a downstream project development business.

Full Report
  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
ESTIMATE CHANGE
1-Year Price Chart
Price History for FSLR
Stock Data
Rating: Outperform
Suitability: Higher Risk
Price Target: $69
Price (10/29/15): $50.99
Market Cap (mil): $5,181
Shares Out (mil): 101.6
Average Daily Vol (mil): 2.05
Dividend Yield: 0.0%
Estimates
FY Dec2015E2016E2017E
Q1(0.62) A
Q20.93 A
Q33.38 A
Q40.69 E
Fiscal EPS4.40 E 3.51 E 3.32 E
Previous Est 3.38 E
Fiscal P/E11.6x14.5x15.4x
Chart/Table Sources: Factset and Baird Data
[ Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification ]
  Click for full report  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
Tyler Frank
tfrank@rwbaird.com
415.364.3342


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Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
Covered Companies Mentioned
All stock prices below are the October 29, 2015 closing price.
8Point3 Energy Partners, LP (CAFD - $13.18 - Outperform)
SunPower Corporation (SPWR - $27.36 - Outperform)
(See recent research reports for more information)




8 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP.

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Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking related compensation from the company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.

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Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.

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Monty Bannerman
ArcStar Energy
+1 646.402.5076
www.arcstarenergy.com

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