Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Q3:15 Preview



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Alexander von Welczeck <awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com>
Date: Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Subject: Fwd: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Q3:15 Preview
To: Monty Bannerman <mbannerman@arcstarenergy.com>, Roy <roy@cleanpowercapital.net>, Mark Hill <mark@cleanpowercapital.net>


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Global Investment Banking, Baird" <bairdinvestmentbanking@rwbaird.com>
Date: Oct 26, 2015 10:00 PM
Subject: Baird/FSLR/Kallo: Q3:15 Preview
To: <awelczeck@cleanpowergroup.com>
Cc:

October 27, 2015Baird Equity Research
Energy Technology & Resource Management
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Q3:15 Preview
 
Reiterate Outperform rating and $69 price target. Our estimates are largely in line with consensus and we believe FSLR will have strong results supported the sale of the Desert Stateline. We continue to believe FSLR is well positioned as the company is sold out of 2016 capacity, continues to make efficiency gains, and remains the cost leader with a solid balance sheet. We recommend owning shares into Q3 results.
  • Our Q3 estimates are largely in line with consensus. We estimate revenue of $1,160M vs. consensus estimates of $1,111M and gross margin of 25.5% vs. 25.5%. We expect net income of $170M vs. $167M and non-GAAP EPS of $1.68 vs. $1.64.
  • Results should be supported by the sale of Desert Stateline facility to Southern Power. During Q3, FSLR sold a controlling interest in its Desert Stateline power plant in CA to Southern Power, a subsidiary of Southern Company (SO; Not Covered). The remaining minority interest will likely be sold to CAFD. The 300 MW project is expected to be fully operational in Q3:16 and the power will be sold to Edison International (EIX; Not Rated) in a 20-year PPA. The deal is FSLR's fourth with SO, including North Star and Lost Hills last quarter, and we view the ongoing relationship as a positive for FSLR.
  • We expect an update on manufacturing volumes, efficiency rates, and thoughts on 2016. Although FSLR continues to work on increasing efficiency rates (lead line was 16.2% during Q2 and FSLR will continue to update its remaining lines), the company is focused on increasing utilization rates and production volumes to meet its 2016 demand. We will look for additional details about plans to expand manufacturing and increase production volumes in 2016.
  • We continue to believe numbers are likely too low for 2016 but do not expect guidance until Q4 results or FSLR's analyst day in early 2016. We estimate 2016 EPS of $3.51 vs. consensus of $4.07, and although consensus estimates have recently been increased, we believe there FSLR could exceed our/consensus estimates given increasing demand and declining costs.
  • The Q3 earnings call will be held on October 29 at 3:30 p.m. CT and can be accessed at http://investor.firstsolar.com/events.cfm.

FSLR designs and manufactures thin-film solar modules and also operates a downstream project development business.

Full Report
  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
RESEARCH UPDATE
1-Year Price Chart
Price History for FSLR
Stock Data
Rating: Outperform
Suitability: Higher Risk
Price Target: $69
Price (10/26/15): $50.57
Market Cap (mil): $5,138
Shares Out (mil): 101.6
Average Daily Vol (mil): 2.04
Dividend Yield: 0.0%
Estimates
FY Dec2015E2016E2017E
Q1(0.62) A
Q20.93 A
Q31.68 E
Q41.39 E
Fiscal EPS3.38 E 3.51 E 3.32 E
Fiscal P/E15.0x14.4x15.2x
Chart/Table Sources: Factset and Baird Data
[ Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification ]
  Click for full report  
Ben Kallo, CFA
bkallo@rwbaird.com
415.364.3345
Tyler Frank
tfrank@rwbaird.com
415.364.3342


Property of Baird. Please contact Baird for permission to share.

Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
Covered Companies Mentioned
All stock prices below are the October 26, 2015 closing price.
8Point3 Energy Partners, LP (CAFD - $13.38 - Outperform)
SunPower Corporation (SPWR - $24.73 - Outperform)
(See recent research reports for more information)




8 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP.

1 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of FSLR, CAFD, EIX, SO and SPWR.

2 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP in the past 12 months.
3 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates have received investment banking compensation from 8Point3 Energy Partners, LP and Southern Company in the past 12 months.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking related compensation from the company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.

Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated may not be licensed to execute transactions in all foreign listed securities directly. Transactions in foreign listed securities may be prohibited for residents of the United States. Please contact a Baird representative for more information.

Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.

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Monty Bannerman
ArcStar Energy
+1 646.402.5076
www.arcstarenergy.com

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