When the Coronavirus Outbreak Could Peak in Each U.S. State
On March 31, the White House coronavirus task force revealed that the death toll from Covid-19 could total in the hundreds of thousands, their first projection of how many people in the U.S. could die over the next couple months. The total is based, in part, on a University of Washington study that considers data from other outbreak hotspots around the world and local conditions in each state—including social-distancing measures and when they went into effect. The model currently predicts that the number of daily deaths in the U.S. could peak on April 16. Tens of thousands of people are still expected to die in the weeks after.
These projections, which are updated regularly, could shift, and Bloomberg News is monitoring the changes. The model, authored by Chris Murray of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, currently projects fewer total deaths than it did when it was released last week. It assumes that strict social-distancing methods which flattened the curve in other parts of the world will be adhered to in the U.S. Studies that anticipate lax guidelines suggest far more people could die, and over a longer period of time.
Projected Deaths in the United States
- Deaths
- Projected Deaths
The outbreak is expected to peak at different times in each state. New York has been the state hardest hit by Covid-19 so far, with about 125,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths as of April 6. But the model, which projects a high and low range of deaths, as well as an average, suggests that the number of deaths per day in New York will peak on April 9. Other states where the virus spread early and rapidly, including Washington and New Jersey, are expected to peak in early April, too. Many states won't see the worst of the outbreak until weeks later.
Daily projected deaths in each state
The total number of deaths in each state will be influenced by factors including the vulnerability of the population, the availability of testing, hospital beds and medical equipment and the timing and effectiveness of distancing orders. The model is adjusted when states institute or update social-distancing policies that order people to stay at home. On March 19, California became the first state to order its residents to stay home. Most states have followed with their own policies. But a few states still had not ordered residents to shelter in place as of April 6, even if some localities within those states issued their own directives.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had resisted calls for a statewide order for weeks as throngs of spring breakers packed state beaches in March, but mandated that residents stay home as of April 3. Murray's model projects that as many as 11,000 people in Florida could die from the coronavirus, more than five times the projected maximum in California—a state with twice as many residents.
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