Thursday, March 26, 2020

Stats and forward indicators from Bloomberg

It takes an average of five days from when a person was exposed to the virus for it to incubate and grow into a symptomatic illness. For patients who are sick enough to be hospitalized, it can take two weeks for them to recover or, in some cases, die, according to a study of patients in China. 

In the last seven days, New York City has diagnosed 18,000 patients. On Wednesday alone, it found 4,400 more. Almost 4,000 people have been hospitalized, including 1,000 on Wednesday, according to the city health department's running tallies. The city reported the most 911 calls since Sept. 11.

The large majority of these new patients were likely infected before the state closed non-essential businesses and told people to stay home on March 20.

New infections are likely to continue to rise for days in New York and elsewhere around the county. We haven't seen the consequences of these illnesses yet. The cycle that's about to happen in the U.S. has already happened in China, Italy and Spain: Early patients were identified, testing eventually grew more widespread, thousands of new cases were found, and then deaths began to accumulate. Italy, which has roughly as many cases as the U.S., has 6,800 deaths. Its outbreak is just a few weeks further ahead.

The good news is that lockdowns of movement and business have helped curtail new cases in those places. And fewer new cases means fewer people dying weeks later. 

Monty Bannerman
Managing Director
Tel: +1 646-402-5076
Cell: +1 305-984-1177

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