Study shows costs of PV decreased 10% per year since 1980
28.01.2016: »We put ourselves in the past, pretended we didn't know the future, and used a simple method to forecast the costs of the technologies.« These were the methodological premises of a study conducted by a research team from the University of Oxford, which has also analyzed the development of the PV technology over the past and future decades. The paper »How predictable is technological progress?,« which found that the costs of a PV module decreased at an average rate of 10% per year since 1980, provides a quantitative answer to a fundamental question: »How do we know that the historical trend will continue? Isn’t it possible that things will reverse, and over the next 20 years coal will drop in price dramatically and solar will go back up?« According to the researchers, the example of solar PV modules illustrates that differences in the improvement rate of competing technologies can be dramatic, and that an underdog can begin far behind the pack and quickly emerge as a front-runner. © PHOTON
Monty Bannerman
ArcStar Energy
+1-646-402-5076
www.arcstarenergy.com
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