Fwd: Week in Review Vol VI - Issue 216: Value of global carbon market set to rise for first time since 2011

> CLEAN ENERGY
> Value of global carbon market set to rise for first time since 2011
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> The value of the global carbon market will reach EUR 46bn in 2014, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts published last week. This will be up 15% from last year but leave it well below the record high of EUR 98bn in 2011. The first annual increase in carbon market trading values since 2011 will owe much to European Union action to delay allowance auctions, which would have otherwise taken place in 2014-16.
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> The European Union proposal to temporarily curb the record glut of carbon permits got approval last Wednesday from representatives of EU member states, the European Commission said in a statement. The EU Climate Change Committee backed a plan to postpone sale of 900m carbon permits from 2014-20 to 2019-20. The volume to be delayed in 2014 will depend on the starting date of the carbon-market fix, which needs to be scrutinised by EU ministers and European Parliament.
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> The Commission said it is seeking to shorten the scrutiny period from the regular three months. Under the measure approved last week, the EU will delay sales of 400m permits in 2014 if backloading starts in the first quarter; or 300m if it begins in the second quarter.
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> This decision is significant as it was the final major approval required for backloading to be implemented. The only question remaining is when in the next four months will the new regulation come into force, enabling auction cuts to begin.
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> On a separate, but related note, the European Parliament's environment and industry committees supported a call for the EU to adopt at least a 40% carbon-reduction goal by 2030 in a non-binding resolution.
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> "Such a target should be implemented by individual national targets, taking into account each member states' individual situation and potential," according to an amendment approved at a joint meeting of those two committees in Brussels on Thursday.
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> The EU is debating a 2030 policy framework for energy and climate. The European Commission is to outline options on 22 January.
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> The 2030 carbon target proposed in the green paper is an early-stage proposal that will have to go through a long legislative process before becoming law. There are diverse views on what the final targets should be and the final number could therefore be different from the proposed 40%. Whether the carbon target will be ambitious depends on how much emission abatement will be delivered by the other parts of the 2030 package.
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> On the topic of 2030, environment and energy ministers from eight nations, including Germany, France and Italy, are calling on the EU to adopt a 2030 target for renewable energy also.
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> "A target for renewable energy is crucial to provide the certainty that can ensure cost-effective investments in energy systems that will strengthen the internal market for energy," ministers from Germany, France, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland and Portugal wrote in a letter to EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger and EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard.
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> When the responses to the Commission's consultation on the 2030 framework came out four months ago, only France, Denmark and Austria were unreservedly in favour of another renewables target, whereas there was broad support for a 2030 carbon target. The balance has shifted with a post-election Germany declaring its position. This leaves the UK as the biggest naysayer, arguing for a more flexible approach to decarbonisation than a renewables target would allow. That is a position that seems to be getting more entrenched, as the UK's opposition Labour Party now appears to have come round to it too, judging by comments from shadow energy minister Tom Greatrex.
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> CARBON MARKETS
> European carbon permits fell last week amid supply concerns
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> European carbon slumped last week despite a brief jump in prices around a vote on a plan to fix the region's oversupplied emissions market. European Union Allowances (EUAs) for December 2014 finished the week 4.4% down. EUAs for delivery in December ended last Friday's session at EUR 4.60/t on ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, compared with EUR 4.81/t at the close of the previous week. Carbon allowances for December 2014 stayed in a EUR 4.70-4.80 range during the first three trading days. Front-year permits jumped to EUR 4.84/t on Wednesday after the Climate Change Committee endorsed a proposal to cut permit sales this year.
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> Prices fell back on Thursday amid supply concerns. There are still 240Mt of permit auctions planned in the first quarter of this year, while New Entrants' Reserve sales – totalling 73Mt – are set to continue until April. UN Certified Emission Reduction credits (CERs) for December 2014 lost EUR 0.02/t last week to finish at EUR 0.34/t.
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> GAS
> Israel to begin regional exports
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> Two regional gas export deals in Israel were revealed last week as the country seeks demand for its growing supply. The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources is expecting to build a pipeline to Jordan by 2016, a Bloomberg News article disclosed last week, quoting two people with knowledge of the matter. The pipeline will connect to an existing line that serves a potash plant near the Dead Sea. Also last week, the developers of the Leviathan natural gas field signed a 20-year supply contract with the Palestine Power Authority totalling 168Bcf for a gas-fired power plant.
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> The Israeli domestic market has been swamped with more gas than has been historically consumed as average gas production at Israel's Tamar field in the Mediterranean Sea has averaged 750MMcfd since start-up in April 2013. Later this decade, the Leviathan field – which could hold twice as much gas as Tamar – is set to start producing.
> Meanwhile, record-breaking cold in much of the US last week led to all-time-high gas prices in the Northeast, as the Arctic blast raised demand for heating fuel. Natural gas for January delivery rose as high as USD 4.43/mBtu last week – about 35% higher than prices a year ago.
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> POWER
> EPA re-proposes power plant rule
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> The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) made further progress towards regulating carbon dioxide emissions from power plants last week. The agency published on 8 January its revised proposed new source performance standards for emissions of the greenhouse gas from new fossil fuel-fired power plants. The new source performance standards rule would limit new natural gas-fired power plants to 1,000lb of carbon dioxide per MWh. New coal-fired units would be limited to 1,100lb of carbon dioxide per MWh. New coal plants would have the option of averaging their emissions over a seven-year period if they agreed to meet a more stringent standard.
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> Over in Europe, Germany and the neighbouring Czech Republic set out to regulate cross-border power flows to protect the Czech grid from overloading. The two countries agreed in principle to install phase-shifting transformers along their common border. The German grid operator is also seeking a binding agreement with Poland. Germany relies on Polish and Czech grids to ship record electricity output from wind turbines in the country's north to industrial users in the south. Moving further east, India delayed the deadline for companies to submit bids in its next national solar auction for a second time to 20 January. This is after developers raised concerns about the ability of cash-strapped state utilities to pay for power. The auction will be the first since 2011 by India's National Solar Mission and offer grants to cover as much as 30 percent of project costs.
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> EU ETS and global carbon price (EUR/tCO2e)
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