do little to reduce downward price pressure in the short and mid-terms, but
will eventually lead to pricing stability IF demand continues to climb.
Photovoltaic equipment spending to fall by half in 2012 says Solarbuzz
Jul 16, 2011
San Francisco, CA--Solarbuzz, a market research business focused on solar
energy and the photovoltaic (PV) industries and part of the NPD Group, says
that PV equipment spending for crystalline silicon (c-Si) ingot-to-module
and thin-film panels is forecast to decline sharply in 2012 to $7.6 billion,
down 47% year-over-year from a record level of $14.2 billion in 2011. Also
according to the latest Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report, the decline
in equipment spending--which includes lasers for PV materials
processing--will impact second-half 2011 PV equipment revenues and result in
lower corporate guidance for 2012. Solarbuzz says that this collapse in
equipment spending is due to ambitious c-Si cell, module, and thin-film
capacity expansions committed during 2010 and the first half of 2011 by tier
2 and tier 3 PV manufacturers.
Q2 2011 PV equipment spending reached $3.6 billion, declining 3%
quarter-over-quarter and representing the first negative growth rate for PV
equipment spending since Q2 2009. According to Finlay Colville, senior
analyst at Solarbuzz, "Strong double-digit bookings and revenue growth
through 2010 created a misleading picture for PV equipment suppliers. This
was caused in part by aggressive expansion plans of second-tier c-Si
manufacturers, and by the quantity of new thin-film fabs that were financed
through the recent thin-film investment cycle. An artificial peak in
equipment spending was created during 2010 and 2011, providing a short-term
pull on equipment that was out-of-sync with the long-term requirements of
the industry."
Expansions across all tier categories will provide 51 GW and 66 GW of
annualized capacity during 2011 and 2012, accumulated from over 300
manufacturers. However, by filtering out the manufacturing capacity that is
both cost-competitive and market-leading, the true significance of these
capacity levels becomes apparent. Tier 1 cell manufacturers will account for
24 GW and 34 GW of capacity in 2011 and 2012, more than sufficient to meet
global demand over this time period.
"Tool suppliers will increasingly focus on securing preferred-supplier
status with tier 1 manufacturers," added Colville. "Additionally,
competition will intensify ahead of the next spending upturn as suppliers
from adjacent market segments (e.g. semiconductor and display) exploit the
opportunity to enter the PV equipment supply-chain."
SOURCE: Solarbuzz;
www.solarbuzz.com/our-research/recent-findings/pv-equipment-spending-fall-ne
arly-half-2012
Posted by: Gail Ove
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