China's Solar Footprint Could Grow Tenfold Through Policies, Low Prices,
According to New Report From Greentech Media Demand for solar panels
inside of China could explode over the next three years, presenting an
opportunity for investors and select international partners, according to a
new report from GTM Research, the market research arm of Greentech Media.
China has a cumulative installed base of 140 megawatts of PV. By 2012, the
report forecasts growth reaching 1.4 gigawatts to 2.6 gigawatts, driven by
new state policies like the Golden Sun program that can cover 50 to 70
percent of the cost of solar systems, according to two authors, China-based
Matt Miller and Matthiah Larkin. During the same period, the full price of
a solar system installed will drop from $2.82 in 2009 to $2.18, lower than
in the U.S. or Europe because of lower prices for labor, inverters and other
factors. In the West, panels sell for approximately $2 a watt. In China, a
panel now sells for $1.57 a watt. By 2020, the cumulative installed PV
base could grow to 10 gigawatts. As early as 2007 Chinese industry officials
had aimed for 300 megawatts by 2012 and 1.8 gigawatts by 2020. The shift
to solar could help deflect criticism internationally and more importantly
de-escalate ongoing conflicts over coal mining and pollution in various
provinces, but the main driver in the shift to solar is a concern over jobs.
The country exports more than 95 percent of its solar panels. The global
recession, however, has stoked fears that demand from Spain, Germany and the
U.S. could drop. During the same period, the solar manufacturing footprint
will grow from 5.6 gigawatts of capacity in 2009 to 8.1 gigawatts in 2012.
In 2005, China had a production capacity of 400 megawatts and a cumulative
installed base of 70 megawatts. "Growth is likely to be lumpy and uneven,
as bottlenecks will inevitably arise in the project approval and funding
disbursement process," states the report. "There are many political layers
involved (local government, provincial DRC, NDRC, and the Ministry of
Finance, at a minimum), and because application volume will be extremely
high." The report, based on dozens of on-site visits to industry
officials, policy makers and installation sites, offers a detailed look at
China's power industry and policies over the last three decades, and how
they could shape the country's solar energy development. See the summary
and download a free executive report at:
http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/china-pv-market-development. About
Greentech Media Greentech Media is an integrated online media company
designed to deliver the highest-quality content in the industry, whether it
is market research, news or conferences. Greentech Media is headquartered in
Cambridge, Mass., with operations in New York City, San Francisco and
Munich. For more information, visit www.greentechmedia.com. Contact:
Scott Clavenna Greentech Media Email Contact SOURCE: Greentech Media,
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